Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 1.939121 2.050109 2.166471 2.297974 2.442966 2.598528 2.778829
2025-09-14 1.753499 1.904433 2.069914 2.266250 2.494765 2.754784 3.076631
2025-09-21 1.628654 1.800353 1.994290 2.232205 2.519970 2.861909 3.307127
2025-09-28 1.528963 1.712588 1.924714 2.191736 2.524681 2.934504 3.491343
2025-10-05 1.484455 1.683937 1.919460 2.223585 2.614619 3.113857 3.823828
2025-10-12 1.448438 1.661569 1.918144 2.257193 2.705705 3.298545 4.180193
2025-10-19 1.413925 1.637987 1.912394 2.282614 2.785289 3.471703 4.537680
2025-10-26 1.367818 1.596931 1.881386 2.271646 2.812980 3.572621 4.797189
2025-11-02 1.326082 1.559027 1.851829 2.259728 2.836835 3.667766 5.056524
2025-11-09 1.282925 1.517176 1.814713 2.234669 2.839116 3.729375 5.266648
2025-11-16 1.242340 1.476877 1.777570 2.207014 2.834860 3.779189 5.460958
2025-11-23 1.215832 1.453793 1.762074 2.208249 2.872298 3.895660 5.786179
2025-11-30 1.194110 1.436635 1.754335 2.220758 2.928551 4.049100 6.207283
2025-12-07 1.158695 1.399955 1.718432 2.190680 2.917204 4.089841 6.418675
2025-12-14 1.124847 1.364221 1.682392 2.158452 2.900041 4.118514 6.609275
2025-12-21 1.090989 1.327416 1.643512 2.120122 2.870598 4.122971 6.749537
2025-12-28 1.081652 1.323613 1.650510 2.150289 2.952818 4.331070 7.365744
2026-01-04 1.073364 1.320821 1.658585 2.182106 3.039426 4.555623 8.070330
2026-01-11 1.063106 1.314856 1.661711 2.206163 3.114263 4.765803 8.793687
2026-01-18 1.043135 1.294664 1.643458 2.195785 3.128964 4.860324 9.243626
2026-01-25 1.023899 1.274958 1.625220 2.184506 3.141140 4.950632 9.704881
2026-02-01 1.002022 1.250943 1.599894 2.160784 3.129660 4.991221 10.035125
2026-02-08 0.980417 1.226803 1.573691 2.134595 3.112187 5.017610 10.330983